“Man plans, god laughs.“
Because of causal opacity, plans that lay out what will happen and when are doomed to failure. Most people think of plans as requiring some type of prediction, so the whole idea of making a plan without making predictions seems like an oxymoron, but it is not. There’s another way to make a plan, which is to lay out goals and how to run experiments to get you closer to your goal, which doesn’t make predictions (and is hence nonpredictive) but is still a plan.Health#
Predictive Planning I am worried that in twenty years I will have hypertension, so I will limit my salt intake now.
Nonpredictive Planning I am worried that in twenty years I will have hypertension, so I will get it checked yearly and adjust accordingly.Reading#
Predictive Planning I plan on reading one hundred books this year, I have a reading list and I will start at the top of the list and work my way down.
Nonpredictive Planning I will make sure that my bookshelf is stocked with interesting books, and when I am drawn to a book I will read it as long as it holds my interest. I am free to not read any book, or read the same book multiple times.Self Improvement#
Predictive Planning I have read that the keys to happiness are X, Y, and Z. I will do them all.
Nonpredictive Planning I will experiment with X, Y, and Z, and keep what works and stop what does not.